Yankees Core Four

After 2010, Pettitte retires.
After 2011, Posada retires.
After 2012, Rivera retires.
After 2013, Jeter retires.

All four retiring, one at a time over four years, drip-drip-drip-drip?

The first two have happened.

The third has been hinted at by the player himself.

The fourth is less likely than the third. Jeter’s contract runs out after 2013 but there is a player option for 2014. So he may hang on one more year, unless his performance reaches the point where he feels that to play would be detrimental to the team. Which is conceivable.

It would be quite the way for the “Core Four” to exit.

Two Attempts at Reviewing Postseason Performance

The tables below should hopefully give an idea of how often a QB does poorly in the postseason, and how his teams do when their QB plays below his standard.

First: “Bad game” defined as less than 6 adjusted yards per attempt. Last column is team W-L record in such games.

Kelly
59%
5-5
Marino
56%
1-9
McNabb
50%
2-6
Hasselbeck
45%
2-3
Roethlisberger
43%
3-3
P. Manning
42%
4-4
Elway
38%
4-4
Brady
36%
6-2
Young
36%
1-4
Rodgers
33%
1-1
Favre
29%
1-6
E. Manning
27%
0-3
Aikman
27%
1-3
Montana
26%
2-4
Warner
8%
1-0
Brees
0%
0-0

Second: “Bad game” defined as one where the QB’s rating was lower than his career regular season rating. Last column is again the team W-L record in such games followed by W-L in the other games.

Kelly
71%
6-6
P. Manning
68%
5-8
Brady
68%
9-6
Marino
61%
2-9
Young
57%
3-5
Roethlisberger
57%
4-4
Favre
50%
2-10
Montana
48%
6-5
Warner
46%
3-3
Hasselbeck
45%
2-3
McNabb
44%
1-6
Elway
41%
4-5
Aikman
40%
2-4
Rodgers
33%
1-1
E. Manning
27%
1-2
Brees
22%
0-2

QB Career Phases

Post inspired by: http://joeposnanski.si.com/2012/02/10/aging-with-chart/

This is based on age rather than experience but I imagine the results would basically be the same.

I searched for the number of seasons with 224 or more pass attempts and a passer rating index of 110 for each age from 22 to 40. Most people are familiar with passer rating; the index is just that number adjusted for the league average; 100 is average, higher is above average, and lower is below average. The other cutoff, 224 attempts, is the minimum needed to qualify for the NFL passer rating title.

On average about 8 quarterbacks reach the mark every season. So roughly it represents the top quadrant of NFL quarterbacks.

Below there are three columns. The first is age, the second is the link (so you can explore the individual quarterbacks to accomplish these seasons), and the third is the number of quarterbacks who fit the above criteria.

22 http://pfref.com/tiny/WYNPs 4
23 http://pfref.com/tiny/XO07e 11



You can generally see a sort of bell curve in the above numbers. The curve becomes starker if you combine the ages into groups of 3:
22-24: 32 seasons
25-27: 120 seasons
28-30: 134 seasons
31-33: 108 seasons
34-36: 67 seasons
37-40: 18 seasons


What might all this mean for current quarterbacks? I haven’t looked at how individual quarterbacks age, so take these with a grain of salt.

Peyton Manning: Already thought to be on the downside due to his neck injury, he is entering his age 36 season. This could be a double whammy.

Tom Brady: Just had another great season, but next year is his age 35 season. It should not come as a total shock were he to start declining in 2012.

Eli Manning: Now with 2 Super Bowl wins, his Hall of Fame case probably relies on him being statistically consistent for the remainder of his career. He has not been so far. Next year is his age 31 season. If he were to follow the trends, he should remain effective for a few years, but 2011 may very well end up being the best season of his career.

Aaron Rodgers: 2011 will probably end up being his best season as well, but what a season it was. He should continue to produce as he is still only approaching his age 29 season.

Drew Brees: Now 33, he still should have some good seasons ahead, but he is getting up in years.

Quarterbacks vs. Pitchers: Credit for Win-Loss Percentage

30% of all PA in 2011 were home runs, walks, and strikeouts

Baseball is 50% run scoring and 50% run prevention
If you only give a pitcher credit for the three “true outcomes” he deserves 15% credit for wins. If you give the pitcher credit for all run prevention, he’s 50% responsible for wins. This assumes a complete game; adjust for, say, 6 IP per start and the range becomes 5%-33%. One in every 5 starts, 1%-7% is our range.
So:
Wins in starts (CG): 15-50%
Wins in average start (6IP): 5%-33%
Wins for team: 1-7%
Football is X% offense (point scoring), and X% defense (point prevention)… but also X% special teams. The equation is something like O=D>S. Either way, the offense is something less than 50%, though perhaps marginally.
If you give a QB credit for the entire offense, he gets something less than 50% of credit for wins.
But that’s probably too much. In 2011, 34% of yards were gained on the ground, so let’s give the passing attack gets about 2/3 credit.
How much of that is the QB? That’s the question.
If we say 45% offense, 45% defense, 10% special teams, and give the QB full credit for the passing game, 2/3 of 45% is 30%.
But there is also pass protection and receiver ability to consider. How much should that count? Do pre-snap adjustments by the QB matter as much? Do QBs deserve some credit for the running game?
Overall, somewhere between 20-30% credit seems right to me.